“I’ve never played against someone who beat me when I was really trying hard,” Naomi Osaka said last year, when she was on a 23-match, 13-month winning streak. The 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 victory over Garbie Muguruza in the fourth round of the Australian Open may have best represented Osaka's unshakeable belief throughout that time period (February 2020 to March 2021). Osaka trailed for most of the match, was down a break in each of the last two sets, and faced two match points at 3-5 in the third. But none of that stopped her from believing that, at least for a small moment in time, she was unstoppable.
The first career meeting between Osaka and Muguruza seemed like a Grand Slam final, and it gave Rod Laver Arena a prize-fight vibe. Each woman was a former No. 1 and a major champion (Osaka had three, Muguruza had two). In their first three rounds, neither had dropped a set. It appeared as if the champion had a solid chance of winning the event. From the start, these two power-forward players did what they do best: smashed the ball into each other as hard as they could. “I felt like I was a bit intimidated because I knew that she was playing really well coming into this match,” Osaka said. “I felt like I couldn’t hit any ball at a slower pace, or else she would immediately move me.”
Muguruza took the lead immediately away, as Osaka hung on for dear life. Muguruza broke Osaka in the first game to go up 2-0, but Osaka leveled the match at 2-2. At the start of the second set, the same thing happened. Muguruza broke and led 2-0 for the second time; this time, with a set and break advantage, it appeared as if she might run away with the match. Osaka, on the other hand, broke back with service aces and forehand winners. With Muguruza serving at 4-5, she broke again on a reflex forehand return. A match that Muguruza appeared to be winning was suddenly leveled at one set apiece.
“I think that’s something you get when you play a Grand Slam champion,” Osaka said. “For me, that’s where I play the best because I feel like I’m pushed really hard.”
Osaka was stretched to her limit in the third set. Muguruza broke early and gained a lead once more; this time, on Osaka's serve, she reached 5-3, 15-40, double match point. That's when Osaka's self-assurance returned. With an ace, she preserved one match point. With a strong forehand, she saved another. She had an ace in her hand. After that, Osaka, who had been making unforced errors for the whole of the afternoon, didn't make another as she cruised to victory in the final four games.
“I felt the entire match I was overthinking,” Osaka said. “There was a moment when I got angry and, like, hit my racquet on the ground. I feel like I released a lot of the thoughts that I had. It just made me go more into, like, instinct-based tennis.”
You'd think Muguruza's victory had been ripped away so brutally and swiftly that he'd be shell-shocked. However, she stated the opposite. “Really the difference I feel like it was one point,” Muguruza said. “Is never a good feeling losing a match that you feel you could change in one second. But I left the court with a good feeling, very good feeling of this tournament in general.”
Muguruza would extend his winning streak by reaching the final in Doha and capturing the title in Dubai. She regained her early-season swagger at the close of the year, winning titles in Chicago and at the WTA's season-ending championships in Guadalajara, after a short break.
For the rest of the tournament, Osaka would maintain her positive attitude from this match, which she would win for her fourth major title. Her sense of invincibility would be shattered a month later in Miami, when she was defeated by Maria Sakkari in a disappointing performance. After that, Osaka's record would be 5-5 for the remainder of the year. She would withdraw from Roland Garros, skip Wimbledon, and exit the US Open in the third round. She cancelled her season in September due to mental health difficulties.
Will the 24-year-old ever reach new heights of invincibility? Will we be able to see her perform in 2022? For the time being, the answers are a mystery. For the time being, all we can do is reflect on Osaka's victory over Muguruza and see how good, tough, and difficult to beat she can be when she's at her best.