T20 World Cup Updates: After Scotland's win against Bangladesh on Sunday, Group B is considerably more complicated than Group A, which was meant to be the harder of the two groups in the first round. In terms of NRR, the three teams - Scotland, Oman, and Bangladesh - are separated by only 0.113 points, and all three teams have an equal chance of qualifying. Here's what each club should achieve to earn a spot in the live T20 tournament.
Despite winning both of their games and sitting atop the table, a misstep in Scotland's last Group B encounter against hosts Oman may result in their elimination. With a win over Oman, they will advance to the Super 12 as the group's top seed. If Scotland loses by even a single run, they will be tied for fourth place with Oman and Bangladesh (if Bangladesh defeats PNG) and will be eliminated if Bangladesh defeats PNG by three or more runs. Scotland will play Oman in the evening game on Thursday, so they will be familiar with the equation ahead of time.
Despite the loss to Bangladesh, Oman still has a chance to qualify because of their better NRR. All they need is a victory over Scotland in the last game to qualify. (If they win by a margin of one run or more, they'll need to score 124+ to keep their NRR ahead of Scotland's.) If Oman loses against Scotland, PNG must defeat Bangladesh for all three teams to be equal on two points, with NRR deciding the qualifier. If Oman loses by seven runs after surrendering 150, Bangladesh must lose by at least four runs chasing 150 against PNG for Oman's NRR to finish higher than Bangladesh's.
If Bangladesh beats PNG and Oman loses to Scotland, NRR will not be a factor, and Bangladesh will join Scotland in the Super 12. Bangladesh will qualify for the World Cup if they beat PNG by three runs or more, even if Scotland loses by just one run since they will have a better NRR than Scotland, with three teams equal on four points apiece. However, if Bangladesh loses by one run against PNG, the team will require Scotland to beat Oman by at least five runs (after both teams score 150 batting first) to qualify by having a higher NRR than Oman after the three teams are equal on two points apiece.
If Oman defeats Scotland, PNG will be eliminated regardless of their outcome against Bangladesh, since both Oman and Scotland would have four points apiece. For the Barramundis' NRR to pass Bangladesh's, they must beat Bangladesh by roughly 44 runs if they bat first, and then hope Scotland beats Oman by at least 42 runs after scoring 150 so that Oman's NRR falls below PNG's.